Iran War: Month One

Can anything good unintentionally come out of this?

Before I get into the meat of this piece, I’d like to share that I have started a YouTube channel. This channel will be more so for instant reactions to things that I may not be able to cover here, since I prefer to put more thought into my Substack articles. It’s nothing fancy, I don’t like sharing my face, but if you want to hear my voice, feel free to check it out.

Anyway, all of you are definitely well aware of the kerfuffle that the United States and Israel have gotten themselves into with Iran. Let me be clear to avoid confusion: I did not support the initiation of war with Iran. I think it is a waste of time that could have been used to help the domestic situation. Trump done goofed here.

Be that as it may, even if I wanted to avoid this situation, we are now in it, and all we can do now is look at potential future outcomes that could be positive for us in the long-term.

The biggest of these would be our total withdrawal from the region by force. I had preferred we left without bloodshed, but at this point I just want our people out of there. Iran has not collapsed as many in our government predicted it would on the first weekend of the conflict. Their military numbers in the hundreds of thousands, and they have proxies all over the Middle East.

Staying in the Middle East under constant bombardment would be unsustainable. To add insult to injury, a large portion of the Shia population now completely dislikes us and sympathizes with the Iranians and proxy groups. The only way we could stay in the region is if we pull our soldiers out of Shia majority areas like Iraq, and even then, we would still be under attack from Iran.

That being said, what is the long-term goal here? Even if Iran falls, the Shia still remain. Will we have to get rid of the Shia as a religious group? Will we enforce Sunni Islamists into positions of power (ISIS)? We basically killed the Shia version of the Pope on February 28^th. How do we put this genie of rage back into the bottle if we continue our stay in the region long-term?

We have backed ourselves into a corner. Our leaders say that our war is with the Iranian regime. That’s not how Shias now see it. They see it as a war against Shia Islam. This is why all of these Shia groups are now fighting us. Thankfully for us, we seem to have gotten the Sunnis on our side (an amazing feat given how Sunni Islamists were our initial enemy post 9/11), but they have Shias inside their borders.

The only logical solution to this problem is to leave the region or be constantly harassed by paramilitary groups and the remnants of a regime that we thought we had destroyed but still have missiles they can launch at us. Unless we engage in a war of total extermination (which I doubt we have the will to do) that is what is going to happen.

The other thing that can potentially happen from this that would be positive for America is a withdrawal from NATO. Rubio and Trump have put NATO on blast for doing next to nothing to help us during this conflict.

Of course, European NATO shouldn’t have to go to war with Iran because of our favors to Isreal. However, it is quite rich given that these same European NATO countries wanted the US to go all in on their war machine against the Russian Federation in Ukraine. The conclusion? Everyone here is a hypocrite.

In this case though, I hope hypocrisy leads to America leaving the NATO alliance. NATO has increasingly become a vehicle for Europe to use against the Russians at our expense. Europe is a wealthy region. Let them take over NATO and turn it into a European defense pact. That will allow America to be free to focus on our hemisphere without obligations to Europe.

Now we go to Israel. I argue that this war was a major miscalculation by the Israelis. Again, leadership of America and Israel thought this would be quick and Iran would fall in one weekend. This did not happen. Instead, Israel has been under constant missile barrage since the beginning of March.

This is with the Iranians being merciful, by the way. Iran has yet to hit much of Israel’s vital organs, though that could change if certain actions are undertaken in 48 hours, as per President Trump’s posts this morning.

Unlike the US, Israel can’t just pack up and leave. They are stuck. The missiles from Iran and Lebanon will continue to harass them until the hostilities cease. Their saving grace is the shield they have built up around themselves via friendly Arab countries, but even that can only do so much.

A long war would most likely be detrimental to the Jewish state. They would end up like the Ukrainians, facing constant blackouts and infrastructure issues due to constant bombardment. While Israel has historically been able to withstand such pressure, that was during a time when the average Israeli was a veteran of a major World War.

The modern Israeli hasn’t experienced life under harsh conditions. America has been able to come to their rescue nearly every time some threat popped up. Can they handle a prolonged period of war where they are facing similar conditions to the Gazans they bombed? I doubt it.

So, what has happened over the past month? America killed Iran’s Supreme Leader. Iran bombed our bases and Israel. America has bombed Iranian infrastructure and Naval forces. Iran has bombed Gulf State oil production and closed the Strait of Hormuz. According to America and Israel, Iran should have been out of missile launchers by now. They obviously aren’t. Proxies have been activated.

Oh yeah, and gasoline prices have gone through the roof. I do enjoy my $4.48 per gallon gas for sure.

I hope that in a couple weeks Trump calls it quits. I don’t even care if it makes America look bad, any form of withdrawal from the region will be a victory in my eyes. Whether it was his intention to do so or not, Trump has created a situation where we can’t remain there without massive loss of American life. If he is smart, he’ll take the exit.

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