Poland's Liberal Counterrevolution

The end of based Poland?

Trouble in one of the last European holdouts of national conservatism. Poland, long under the rule of the Law and Justice Party, held an election a couple months ago. The results of this election resulted in pro-EU parties being elected to majorities. On December 13th, Donald Tusk (yes, the former President of the European Council) was elected as the new Prime Minister of Poland.

Ever since his ascent, the new neoliberal regime has quickly gotten to work consolidating their power. They removed and replaced all of the people in charge of the state media on the basis that said people were merely in their positions to spread propaganda for the ruling Law and Justice Party. This is, of course, very ironic, as we can most likely expect the new people in charge of these media outlets to provide a pro-European Union and pro-neoliberal message.

To top it off, there has also been an arrest of Polish MPs from the Law and Justice Party. Their names are Mariusz Kaminski and Maciej Wasik (if there are any Poles reading this, there are accents on certain letters in their names, but alas I do not have an international keyboard nor do I currently know how to put them on my current setup, I apologize) and they were sentenced to two years in prison and an additional five year ban on political office.

To his credit, it appears that Tusk has some hesitation when it comes to things like the EU’s migrant policy, stating that Poland will not accept a single migrant under EU relocation scheme. Of course, that sounds all well and good, but given how he has tied himself to the EU, would he stick to this position if a better deal was offered? Will Poland come first, or will the EU come first? Poland has seemed to avoid many of the troubles that other European nations are undergoing with reckless immigration policy, even with Belarus allowing migrants to pass through their territory on the condition that they go to Poland. I do not see the more liberal Tusk being tough on the migration issue given that he was a key part of an organization that oversaw such a failure in the first place.

So what does all of this prove? It proves that populists cannot get complacent. Poland’s national populist movement has been very successful in gaining power. They had control over the country for eight years. They had successfully molded institutions to consolidate their power. Yet they became complacent and lazy and thus lost their power to the neoliberal specter that haunts us all. Now we are only in a month of Tusk’s government and already much has been done to dismantle the infrastructure that the Law and Justice Party had built up. Now, I have had my criticisms of the ruling Law and Justice government, mainly their reckless foreign policy in regards to Russia (where they essentially agreed with the establishment consensus that Russia needs to be considered as an existential threat to Europe). I feel that if they had spent more time implementing populist policies rather than beating war drums that they could have had an easier time maintaining power. After all, Tusk’s policy on the war front won’t be any different, so who cares if he is elected?

What Tusk teaches us is that any populist movement that wishes to be effective in wielding power must act decisively against the previous regime. The Tusk government has wasted no time in arresting opponents for corruption and taking control of the national media. Given that our neoliberal establishment enemies have proven that they will play dirty against us, so should we do the same when we have control. No wasting time with reconciliation against those who would not do the same for us. Did Joe Biden and the Democratic congress show any interest in reconciliation when they immediately went after so-called “domestic terrorists” that were in the capitol on January 6th? Does the German SPD/Green government show any interest in reconciliation when they have floated the idea of banning the AFD? Of course not. The neoliberals understand that they need to keep power and will use the façade of legal technicalities to act like they are simply upholding the law of the land. It is what the Democrats are doing to Donald Trump in the US, what Macron is doing to the Yellow Vests in France, What Scholz is doing to the AFD in Germany, and what Tusk is doing to the Law and Justice Party in Poland.

As you should know at this point, whenever a politician talks about “protecting our democracy,” what they are really saying is that the system which benefits us should not be questioned. We, the political class (many of whom have been in office for decades) know what is best for you, the people. Those of you who have been subscribed or have followed me know that I have been pounding this same message since I started, because at the end of the day, that message is what all of this circles back to.

Any populist movement worth their lot has to stick to the principles that got them elected. Populism is a powerful tool, but it is reliant on the base of support, deviating from that base will result in a loss of power. The populist support base will feel disillusioned and unmotivated to vote. On the other hand, liberalism has a consistent support base as well as support from the institutions that be. If a liberal deviates from their promises, they still have their consistent support base as well as the institutions that will run cover for them. This is why Italian Prime Minister Meloni has been doing so badly. She ran on a populist platform, got elected, and all she has to show for it are tax cuts.

The goal of the international populist movement should be to get elected and go full speed ahead. No more dilly dallying with the opposition. Either get on board or get out of the way. Make good on the promises which you ran on. If there is pushback, push back harder. It is why people like Theodore Roosevelt, Huey Long, Juan Peron, Thomas Sankara, Andrew Jackson, Plutarco Calles, Gamal Abdel Nasser, and others were so successful. There needs to be a return to this playbook by populists around the globe. Only through a full shakeup of the ruling system can we achieve our goals. The establishment has proven multiple times that they will not play with good sportsmanship. This is what the movement has to understand and as a result we have to adjust our tactics accordingly.

Oceanus