The Coming Hot War

Iran and Israel at each other's throats

For those of you who have been tuned out over the events of the past couple weeks, I will give you a refresher on something that is quite important. There have been multiple instances where we have seen a military escalation.

First, Israel accused Hezbollah of bombing a playground with one of their missiles. Israel got really upset over this, and vowed retaliation. Later, they struck Beirut, Lebanon, where a prominent Hezbollah official was residing, killing him.  

In turn, this led Hezbollah to vow a retaliation against Israel. This retaliation is yet to come. It has resulted in multiple countries pulling out their citizens from Lebanon in the fear of a wider ground war.

To make matters worse, Israel assassinated the head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, while he was attending the inauguration of Iran’s new President, the reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, who himself was replacing President Raisi, killed in a helicopter crash.

Given that this assassination took place on Iranian territory, and the capital city, Iran has vowed retaliation. It has been nearly two weeks, and we are still awaiting this response. Unlike Iran’s last strike against Israel in April, there seem to be no backchannel communications between the US, Israel, and Iran, suggesting a larger strike with better weapons.

Due to this uncertainty, the United States has deployed numerous Naval assets in the region, with more on the way. I take this, along with the admission from top US officials that indicate they have no clue what Iran is going to do, as a sign that Iran is actually serious this go round.

To top all of this off, unrelated to the Middle East, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have seemingly pulled off a relatively successful push into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. How long they will be able to hold what they have gained is unknown.

The Problem

As an American, I am deeply concerned by these developments. The United States has had our hands in many of these issues. We have a close relationship with the Israelis and the Ukrainians, so much so that their conflicts become our conflicts.

The US has already had our share of Middle Eastern wars, such as Iraq and Afghanistan, the latter of which is considered a failure despite going on for over two decades. I do not believe that we will be able to take on Iran without suffering major damage militarily and domestically.

Iran is not like the Taliban. The Islamic Republic has been an established state since 1979. They have a large military force and are quite technologically inclined. Remember, it was Iran who started supplying Russia with the drones they are now using in Ukraine.

America, unlike Russia, has not spent the last two years fighting a modernized army. Our focus has mainly been on counterterrorism. We haven’t fought against a proper state since Iraq, and even then, it wasn’t much of a fight.

Our main advantage against Iran would be our great air force, but after that I don’t see a ground incursion going too well. Iran is a mountainous country with a large population. We might be able to control seaside ports in the south at best. That’s if we can even land.

There is also the issue of their anti-ship missiles and suicide drones. I could see them using swarms of drones to force our ships to use up ammunition while using anti-ship missiles afterwards. We currently have a carrier in the Persian Gulf, good luck to those guys.

Then we have to wonder if the Russians are supplying them with hypersonic missiles. There have been planes flying to Tehran from Russia for days now. Currently the US has no ability to deal with hypersonics, though we are trying.

The truth is that the US and Iran, while being stuck in a years long cold war, have never actually fought each other. Should a regional war erupt in the coming days, we will both be in uncharted territory.

Imagine Joe Biden leading us through the US/Iran War. He has been up to his usual antics in regards to this issue, telling Iran to, and I quote, “don’t.” Alright Joe, well what if they do? They are clearly fed up, don’t doesn’t matter at this point.

George Washington, our glorious first president, warned us against these foreign entanglements, even when there was no nuclear world ending weaponry to warrant such fears. We didn’t listen, and now we are on the verge of another Middle Eastern war.

Speculations on Response

Now, there is, like in April, the chance that the Iranian response will be rather underwhelming. I think that is what the US is hoping for. I don’t think that is what they are expecting, given that we are moving so many assets to the region.

Unlike April, when the Iranians were telling everyone the targets, they are now dead silent. US officials simply do not know what is going to happen. You may have heard numerous reports during the last two weeks about how an Iranian response was imminent. “Iran will attack in the next 72 hours!” Only for 72 hours to pass with nothing. Rinse and repeat.

I was hearing things about internal disagreements over the response. The new president, Pezeshkian, who wants better relations with the west, is apparently pushing for a limited response. On the other hand, the Revolutionary Guards are pushing for a hard response. Ultimately, the Supreme Leader controls foreign policy, so the decision lays with Khamenei.

Personally, I believe that they have to deliver a hard response otherwise it will just be inviting Israel to continue operating inside Iranian territory with little consequence. As a sovereign country, you cannot just allow attacks inside your territory unchecked.

All this leads me to believe, and I could be totally wrong as it is just speculation, that we will see a larger scale response than was seen in April. Perhaps the US sending carriers to the region can make them think twice, perhaps they already have made up their mind regardless.

Conclusion

No matter where this leads, it will definitely be added to my list of topics to cover on this page. This conflict has been a long time coming, it just needed the right fuse to be lit. Whether it happens in the next couple days or the next couple years, I don’t see this issue going away unless either the Islamic Republic or Israel ceases to exist.

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